Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 3 de Febrero

Sportivo Trinidense

FT

2 – 0

3 de Febrero

8/4/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sportivo Trinidense47%

×Draw27%

3 de Febrero26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo TrinidenseExpected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.97

Sportivo Trinidense

1.39

3 de Febrero

0.97

Sportivo Trinidense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

1.45

creates per match

1.03

0.90

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sportivo Trinidense

1.45

3 de Febrero

1.03

allows per match

Sportivo Trinidense

0.90

3 de Febrero

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Trinidense ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Trinidense or draw

74%

Sportivo Trinidense or 3 de Febrero

73%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

22%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

75%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

40%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

16%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

62%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

25%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

64%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Trinidense at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.90 · 62 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.45 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

47%

level

27%

3 de Febrero scores more

26%

Sportivo Trinidense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff