3 de Febrero 1–1 Sportivo Trinidense

3 de Febrero

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

I. Benitez 90+2'

R. Baez Mendoza 54'

4/25/2022

Division Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

3 de Febrero37%

×Draw26%

Sportivo Trinidense37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 de FebreroExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

3 de Febrero

1.30

Sportivo Trinidense

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 62 away

1.28

creates per match

1.34

1.26

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

3 de Febrero

1.28

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

allows per match

3 de Febrero

1.26

Sportivo Trinidense

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw

63%

3 de Febrero or Sportivo Trinidense

74%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

63%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

73%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

37%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

14%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

73%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

37%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

50%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

3 de Febrero scores more

37%

level

26%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

37%

3 de Febrero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

R. Baez Mendoza

90+2'

I. Benitez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff