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Sportivo Peñarol vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
CANC
00:00
Sansinena
Sansinena
3/22/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 24Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol45%
×Draw28%
Sansinena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
1.29
Sansinena
0.93

Sportivo Peñarol creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.31
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.10
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
73%
Sportivo Peñarol or Sansinena
72%
Draw or Sansinena
55%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
20%
Sansinena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
14%
Sansinena 1+ goals
61%
Sansinena 2+ goals
24%
Sansinena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
63%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
45%
level
28%
Sansinena scores more
27%

Sportivo Peñarol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Peñarol face Sansinena (Torneo Federal A)

Torneo Federal A returns with Sportivo Peñarol hosting Sansinena. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sportivo Peñarol host Sansinena at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.