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Sportivo Peñarol vs Juventud Unida Univ. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
9/3/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 28Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol41%
×Draw29%
Juventud Unida Univ.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
1.18
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.95

Sportivo Peñarol creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.31
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.79

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.10
Juventud Unida Univ.
1.05

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
71%
Sportivo Peñarol or Juventud Unida Univ.
71%
Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.
59%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
18%
Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
12%
Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
61%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
25%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
58%
Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
41%
level
29%
Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
29%

Sportivo Peñarol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sportivo Peñarol 1–1 Juventud Unida Univ.

Sportivo Peñarol and Juventud Unida Univ. drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.