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Sportivo Peñarol vs Def. de Pronunciamiento — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Def. de Pronunciamiento
Def. de Pronunciamiento
11/7/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Ramón Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol47%
×Draw27%
Def. de Pronunciamiento26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
1.40
Def. de Pronunciamiento
0.96

Sportivo Peñarol creates 46% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.31
Def. de Pronunciamiento
0.81

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.10
Def. de Pronunciamiento
1.49

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Def. de Pronunciamiento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
74%
Sportivo Peñarol or Def. de Pronunciamiento
73%
Draw or Def. de Pronunciamiento
53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
23%
Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
75%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
41%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
17%
Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals
62%
Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals
25%
Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
65%
Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 0.81 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
47%
level
27%
Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more
26%

Sportivo Peñarol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Peñarol vs Def. de Pronunciamiento

Def. de Pronunciamiento beat Sportivo Peñarol 5-2 in Torneo Federal A on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.