Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Peñarol vs Circulo Deportivo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
CANC
00:00
Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
4/19/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 28Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol52%
×Draw26%
Circulo Deportivo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Peñarol
1.48
Circulo Deportivo
0.85

Sportivo Peñarol creates 74% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.31
Circulo Deportivo
0.60

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol
1.10
Circulo Deportivo
1.66

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par
Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Circulo Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw
78%
Sportivo Peñarol or Circulo Deportivo
74%
Draw or Circulo Deportivo
48%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
26%
Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
43%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
19%
Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
57%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
21%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
71%
Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Circulo Deportivo away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Circulo Deportivo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.60 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more
52%
level
26%
Circulo Deportivo scores more
22%

Sportivo Peñarol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sportivo Peñarol host Circulo Deportivo

April 19, 2020: Sportivo Peñarol take on Circulo Deportivo in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sportivo Peñarol host Circulo Deportivo at Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.