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Circulo Deportivo vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
8/21/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 18Estadio Guillermo Trama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Circulo Deportivo46%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Peñarol26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Circulo Deportivo
1.31
Sportivo Peñarol
0.92

Circulo Deportivo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 62 away

creates per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.97
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.96
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Circulo Deportivo ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Circulo Deportivo or draw
74%
Circulo Deportivo or Sportivo Peñarol
72%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
54%

Winning margin

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
21%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
73%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
38%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
14%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
60%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
23%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
63%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Circulo Deportivo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.97 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Circulo Deportivo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Circulo Deportivo scores more
46%
level
28%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
26%

Circulo Deportivo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Circulo Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Circulo Deportivo vs Sportivo Peñarol

Sportivo Peñarol beat Circulo Deportivo 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Trama in Comandante Nicanor Otamendi, Pr. de Buenos Aires.