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Sportivo Luqueno vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
5/23/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno50%
×Draw26%
Martin Ledesma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.47
Martin Ledesma
0.90

Sportivo Luqueno creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.60
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
0.93
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
77%
Sportivo Luqueno or Martin Ledesma
74%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
50%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
25%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
43%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
18%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
59%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
23%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
69%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.60 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
50%
level
26%
Martin Ledesma scores more
23%

Sportivo Luqueno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs Martin Ledesma

Martin Ledesma beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres in Luque.