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Sportivo Luqueno vs General Diaz — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
General Diaz
General Diaz
3/2/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 5Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno49%
×Draw24%
General Diaz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.70
General Diaz
1.21

Sportivo Luqueno creates 40% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.13
General Diaz
1.12

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.30
General Diaz
2.27

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

General Diaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
73%
Sportivo Luqueno or General Diaz
76%
Draw or General Diaz
51%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
26%
General Diaz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
82%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
51%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
24%
General Diaz 1+ goals
70%
General Diaz 2+ goals
34%
General Diaz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
64%
General Diaz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

General Diaz away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + General Diaz defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

General Diaz attack 1.12 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
49%
level
24%
General Diaz scores more
27%

Sportivo Luqueno at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Luqueno vs General Diaz

Sportivo Luqueno beat General Diaz 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on March 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque).