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General Diaz vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
5/9/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 16Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

General Diaz35%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Luqueno38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.22
Sportivo Luqueno
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 86 away

creates per match

General Diaz
1.00
Sportivo Luqueno
1.00

allows per match

General Diaz
1.58
Sportivo Luqueno
1.44

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
62%
General Diaz or Sportivo Luqueno
73%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
65%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
15%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
70%
General Diaz 2+ goals
34%
General Diaz 3+ goals
12%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
48%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

General Diaz scores more
35%
level
27%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
38%

Sportivo Luqueno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: General Diaz 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno

General Diaz beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque).