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Sportivo Luqueno vs 3 de Febrero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
4/2/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 10Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno47%
×Draw26%
3 de Febrero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Luqueno
1.52
3 de Febrero
1.10

Sportivo Luqueno creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.13
3 de Febrero
0.91

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno
1.30
3 de Febrero
1.91

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw
73%
Sportivo Luqueno or 3 de Febrero
74%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
24%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
78%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
45%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
20%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
67%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
30%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
63%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more
47%
level
26%
3 de Febrero scores more
27%

Sportivo Luqueno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 3 de Febrero

Sportivo Luqueno and 3 de Febrero drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Feliciano Cáceres (Luque).