Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 12 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

12 de Octubre

2/26/2021

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno39%

×Draw28%

12 de Octubre33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this match12 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.12

Sportivo Luqueno

1.24

12 de Octubre

1.12

Sportivo Luqueno creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

0.94

1.30

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.13

12 de Octubre

0.94

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.30

12 de Octubre

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

12 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

67%

Sportivo Luqueno or 12 de Octubre

72%

Draw or 12 de Octubre

61%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

17%

12 de Octubre wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

71%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

35%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

13%

12 de Octubre 1+ goals

67%

12 de Octubre 2+ goals

31%

12 de Octubre 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

54%

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

39%

level

28%

12 de Octubre scores more

33%

Sportivo Luqueno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff