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Sportivo Las Parejas vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Las Parejas
Sportivo Las Parejas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
4/16/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio La Perrera (Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sportivo Las Parejas49%
×Draw29%
Sansinena22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Las Parejas
1.26
Sansinena
0.73

Sportivo Las Parejas creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sportivo Las Parejas
1.24
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Sportivo Las Parejas
0.70
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Las Parejas ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Las Parejas or draw
78%
Sportivo Las Parejas or Sansinena
71%
Draw or Sansinena
51%

Winning margin

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+
23%
Sansinena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals
36%
Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals
13%
Sansinena 1+ goals
52%
Sansinena 2+ goals
17%
Sansinena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)
69%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Las Parejas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 1.24 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more
49%
level
29%
Sansinena scores more
22%

Sportivo Las Parejas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sportivo Las Parejas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sportivo Las Parejas 0–0 Sansinena

Sportivo Las Parejas and Sansinena drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Perrera (Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe).