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Sportivo Iteno vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Rubio NU
Rubio NU
C. Romero 56'
P. Villero 83'
F. Mereles 71'
W. Notario 66' (OG)
E. Morales 45'
M. E. Verdun 30'
9/24/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sportivo Iteno34%
×Draw29%
Rubio NU38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.09
Rubio NU
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 107 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.98
Rubio NU
1.09

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.24
Rubio NU
1.21

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Rubio NU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
62%
Sportivo Iteno or Rubio NU
71%
Draw or Rubio NU
66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
13%
Rubio NU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
66%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
10%
Rubio NU 1+ goals
69%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
33%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
47%
Rubio NU (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
34%
level
29%
Rubio NU scores more
38%

Rubio NU at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. E. Verdun
45'
E. Morales
56'
C. Romero
66'
W. NotarioOwn goal
71'
F. Mereles
83'
P. Villero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Iteno vs Rubio NU

Rubio NU beat Sportivo Iteno 5-1 in Division Intermedia on September 24, 2022.

Goals: M. E. Verdun (30'), E. Morales (45'), C. Romero (56'), W. Notario (66' o.g.), F. Mereles (71'), P. Villero (83').

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra in Itá.