Sportivo Iteno 1–1 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

Sportivo Iteno

FT

1 – 1

Martin Ledesma

4/21/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Iteno38%

×Draw29%

Martin Ledesma32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo ItenoExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.04

Sportivo Iteno

1.16

Martin Ledesma

1.04

Sportivo Iteno creates 12% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

0.97

creates per match

0.87

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno

0.97

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno

1.22

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw

68%

Sportivo Iteno or Martin Ledesma

71%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

62%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

16%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

32%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

11%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

65%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

28%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

54%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more

38%

level

29%

Martin Ledesma scores more

32%

Sportivo Iteno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Iteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff