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Sportivo Iteno vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
FT
3 – 0
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
9/1/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sportivo Iteno48%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Caaguazu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.45
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.97

Sportivo Iteno creates 49% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
75%
Sportivo Iteno or Deportivo Caaguazu
73%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
52%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
42%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.45

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
25%

Sportivo Iteno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportivo Iteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Iteno 3–0 Deportivo Caaguazu

Sportivo Iteno beat Deportivo Caaguazu 3-0 in Division Intermedia on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá).