Sportivo Iteno 0–0 Club River Plate: Result & Stats

Sportivo Iteno

FT

0 – 0

Club River Plate

7/16/2017

Division Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Salvador Morga (Itá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sportivo Iteno35%

×Draw29%

Club River Plate36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo ItenoExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.12

Sportivo Iteno

1.10

Club River Plate

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 48 away

0.97

creates per match

1.02

1.22

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno

0.97

Club River Plate

1.02

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno

1.22

Club River Plate

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw

64%

Sportivo Iteno or Club River Plate

71%

Draw or Club River Plate

65%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

14%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

67%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

30%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

10%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

67%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

31%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

49%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more

35%

level

29%

Club River Plate scores more

36%

Club River Plate at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff