Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Italiano vs Los Andes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Los Andes
Los Andes
8/10/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 9Estadio República de Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Italiano40%
×Draw32%
Los Andes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Italiano
1.03
Los Andes
0.82

Sportivo Italiano creates 26% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sportivo Italiano
1.04
Los Andes
0.85

allows per match

Sportivo Italiano
0.80
Los Andes
1.02

finishing

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par
Los Andes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Italiano ↓

Los Andes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sportivo Italiano or draw
72%
Sportivo Italiano or Los Andes
68%
Draw or Los Andes
60%

Winning margin

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
16%
Los Andes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
64%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
9%
Los Andes 1+ goals
56%
Los Andes 2+ goals
20%
Los Andes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
58%
Los Andes (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Italiano at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.80 · 55 matches

Los Andes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Italiano attack 1.04 + Los Andes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Los Andes attack 0.85 + Sportivo Italiano defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportivo Italiano scores more
40%
level
32%
Los Andes scores more
28%

Sportivo Italiano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportivo Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Sportivo Italiano 2–1 Los Andes

Sportivo Italiano beat Los Andes 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio República de Italia in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.