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Sportivo Italiano vs Dock Sud — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
Preview
20:00
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
8/15/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 30Republica de Italia Stadium
Big match
41%
Sportivo Italiano
model favours
41%30%29%

Sportivo Italiano have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Italiano41%
×Draw30%
Dock Sud29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Italiano
1.13
Dock Sud
0.90

Sportivo Italiano creates 26% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sportivo Italiano
1.04
Dock Sud
0.99

allows per match

Sportivo Italiano
0.80
Dock Sud
1.21

finishing

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Italiano ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Italiano or draw
71%
Sportivo Italiano or Dock Sud
70%
Draw or Dock Sud
59%

Winning margin

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
17%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
31%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
11%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
59%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
23%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
59%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Italiano at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.80 · 55 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.21 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Italiano attack 1.04 + Dock Sud defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dock Sud attack 0.99 + Sportivo Italiano defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Italiano scores more
41%
level
30%
Dock Sud scores more
29%

Sportivo Italiano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportivo Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sportivo Italiano are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Dock Sud score first in only 25% of matches
  • 67% of Dock Sud’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Italiano
WWWDD
Sud
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Italiano vs Dock Sud — Match Preview

Sportivo Italiano face Dock Sud on August 15, 2026 in this Primera B Metropolitana fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sportivo Italiano host Dock Sud at Republica de Italia Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.