Dock Sud 0–0 Sportivo Italiano: Result & Stats

Dock Sud

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Italiano

9/15/2025

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 13Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dock Sud39%

×Draw30%

Sportivo Italiano31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dock SudExpected goals in this matchSportivo Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.99

Dock Sud

1.14

Sportivo Italiano

0.99

Dock Sud creates 15% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 55 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

1.06

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Dock Sud

1.18

Sportivo Italiano

0.91

allows per match

Dock Sud

1.06

Sportivo Italiano

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Sportivo Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw

69%

Dock Sud or Sportivo Italiano

70%

Draw or Sportivo Italiano

61%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals

68%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

32%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals

63%

Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals

26%

Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

55%

Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 87 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.91 + Dock Sud defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dock Sud scores more

39%

level

30%

Sportivo Italiano scores more

31%

Dock Sud at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Arias

36'

J. Rivero

46'

M. Schonfeld← L. Chiapparo

49'

E. Vlaeminch

60'

J. Gonzalez← E. Vlaeminch

61'

B. Kreiman

67'

F. Mesa← V. Quevedo

77'

M. Davila← E. Mozzone

78'

F. Cipresso← J. De Cuadro

85'

85'

87'

90'

90'

90+5'

Dock

Sportivo

1

4

2

6

3

8

5

7

10

▼

Cuadro

9

▼

11

1

4

2

6

3

7

▼

Chiapparo

5

▼

Vlaeminch

10

▼

Quevedo

11

▼

Melillo

8

Villalba

9

▼

Molina

Manager: M. Córdoba

46'▲M. Schonfeld←▼L. Chiapparo

60'▲J. Gonzalez←▼E. Vlaeminch

67'▲F. Mesa←▼V. Quevedo

85'▲T. Luna←▼E. Melillo

85'▲B. Gauna←▼M. Molina

Dock Sud substitutes

12Cuenca13Cavallera14Luna15Perez16Schonfeld17Schoveikofski18Mesa19Gonzalez20Gauna

Manager: J. Díaz

77'▲M. Davila←▼E. Mozzone

78'▲F. Cipresso←▼J. De Cuadro

Sportivo Italiano substitutes

12Yordan13Mayola14Merzario15Roccia16Laborda17Cipresso18Benitez19Torres20Davila