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Sportivo Desamparados vs Villa Mitre — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Mitre
Villa Mitre
10/14/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 7Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados39%
×Draw33%
Villa Mitre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
0.98
Villa Mitre
0.78

Sportivo Desamparados creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 115 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Villa Mitre
0.80

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Villa Mitre
0.90

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Villa Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Villa Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
72%
Sportivo Desamparados or Villa Mitre
67%
Draw or Villa Mitre
61%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
15%
Villa Mitre wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
62%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
8%
Villa Mitre 1+ goals
54%
Villa Mitre 2+ goals
18%
Villa Mitre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
58%
Villa Mitre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Villa Mitre away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.90 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Villa Mitre defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Villa Mitre attack 0.80 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
39%
level
33%
Villa Mitre scores more
28%

Sportivo Desamparados at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs Villa Mitre

Villa Mitre beat Sportivo Desamparados 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan).