Sportivo Desamparados 0–4 Juventud Unida Univ.

Sportivo Desamparados

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Juventud Unida Univ.

8/1/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 15Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados41%

×Draw32%

Juventud Unida Univ.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo DesamparadosExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida Univ.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.77

Sportivo Desamparados

1.05

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.77

Sportivo Desamparados creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

1.05

creates per match

0.79

0.75

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados

1.05

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.79

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados

0.75

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw

74%

Sportivo Desamparados or Juventud Unida Univ.

68%

Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.

59%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

17%

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

28%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

9%

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals

54%

Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals

18%

Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

61%

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

41%

level

32%

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more

26%

Sportivo Desamparados at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff