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Sportivo Desamparados vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
6/19/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 8Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados42%
×Draw33%
Independiente De Chivilcoy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
1.03
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.71

Sportivo Desamparados creates 45% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.67

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.01

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
75%
Sportivo Desamparados or Independiente De Chivilcoy
67%
Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
17%
Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
64%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
9%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
51%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
16%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
63%
Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
42%
level
33%
Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
25%

Sportivo Desamparados at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sportivo Desamparados 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Sportivo Desamparados beat Independiente De Chivilcoy 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.