Sportivo Desamparados 3–1 Deportivo Maipu

Sportivo Desamparados

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Maipu

5/5/2019

Torneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundEstadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados45%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Maipu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo DesamparadosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maipu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.77

Sportivo Desamparados

1.17

Deportivo Maipu

0.77

Sportivo Desamparados creates 52% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

1.05

creates per match

0.79

0.75

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados

1.05

Deportivo Maipu

0.79

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados

0.75

Deportivo Maipu

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Deportivo Maipu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw

76%

Sportivo Desamparados or Deportivo Maipu

69%

Draw or Deportivo Maipu

55%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

54%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

18%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.79 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

45%

level

31%

Deportivo Maipu scores more

24%

Sportivo Desamparados at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff