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Sportivo Desamparados vs Circulo Deportivo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
10/2/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 32Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados53%
×Draw28%
Circulo Deportivo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
1.35
Circulo Deportivo
0.68

Sportivo Desamparados creates 99% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Circulo Deportivo
0.60

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Circulo Deportivo
1.66

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Circulo Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
81%
Sportivo Desamparados or Circulo Deportivo
72%
Draw or Circulo Deportivo
47%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
26%
Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
39%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
15%
Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
49%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
15%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
74%
Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Circulo Deportivo away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Circulo Deportivo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.60 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
53%
level
28%
Circulo Deportivo scores more
19%

Sportivo Desamparados at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sportivo Desamparados 3–0 Circulo Deportivo

Sportivo Desamparados beat Circulo Deportivo 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.