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Sportivo Desamparados vs Cipolletti — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cipolletti
Cipolletti
9/24/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 24Estadio El Serpentario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados43%
×Draw31%
Cipolletti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Desamparados
1.11
Cipolletti
0.78

Sportivo Desamparados creates 42% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados
1.05
Cipolletti
0.80

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados
0.75
Cipolletti
1.18

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par
Cipolletti+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Cipolletti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw
74%
Sportivo Desamparados or Cipolletti
69%
Draw or Cipolletti
57%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
18%
Cipolletti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
10%
Cipolletti 1+ goals
54%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
18%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
63%
Cipolletti (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Cipolletti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Cipolletti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cipolletti attack 0.80 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more
43%
level
31%
Cipolletti scores more
26%

Sportivo Desamparados at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Desamparados vs Cipolletti

Sportivo Desamparados beat Cipolletti 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Serpentario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.