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Sportivo Carapeguá vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Carapeguá
Sportivo Carapeguá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
4/24/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sportivo Carapeguá50%
×Draw26%
Martin Ledesma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.50
Martin Ledesma
0.96

Sportivo Carapeguá creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.65
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.04
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Carapeguá ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Carapeguá or draw
76%
Sportivo Carapeguá or Martin Ledesma
74%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
50%

Winning margin

Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+
25%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals
78%
Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals
44%
Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals
19%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
62%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
25%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)
67%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Carapeguá at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.65 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Carapeguá scores more
50%
level
26%
Martin Ledesma scores more
24%

Sportivo Carapeguá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sportivo Carapeguá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Carapeguá 1–0 Martin Ledesma

Sportivo Carapeguá beat Martin Ledesma 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Manuel Gamarra in Itá.