Sportivo Carapeguá vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
Sportivo Carapeguá46%
Deportivo Santani28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sportivo Carapeguá creates 35% more chances
Season form · 53 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sportivo Carapeguá ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sportivo Carapeguá at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches
Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.64 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48
Deportivo Santani attack 1.14 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Sportivo Carapeguá at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Sportivo Carapeguá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsDeportivo Santani
12 de Junio VH
Tacuary
Atlético Tembetary
Benjamín Aceval
Fernando De La MoraSportivo Carapeguá
SOL DE America
Paraguari AC
Encarnación
General Caballero
Guairena FC
Independiente F.b.c.
Deportivo Capiata
Resistencia
3 de NoviembreIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sportivo Carapeguá host Deportivo Santani on Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2026/2027 season.
Sportivo Carapeguá 4 – 0 Deportivo Santani
Sportivo Carapeguá beat Deportivo Santani 4-0 in Division Intermedia on May 25, 2025.
Goals: M. Smith (10'), F. Arce (29'), J. Torales (80'), L. Villagra (86' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá in Carapeguá.