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Sportivo Carapeguá vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Carapeguá
Sportivo Carapeguá
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
M. Ojeda 59'
A. Montiel 40'
G. A. Villamayor Achucarro 32'
F. V. Bareiro Munoz 61'
9/21/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sportivo Carapeguá47%
×Draw26%
Club River Plate27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.46
Club River Plate
1.04

Sportivo Carapeguá creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.65
Club River Plate
1.04

allows per match

Sportivo Carapeguá
1.04
Club River Plate
1.26

finishing

Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Carapeguá ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Carapeguá or draw
73%
Sportivo Carapeguá or Club River Plate
74%
Draw or Club River Plate
53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+
23%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals
43%
Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals
18%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
65%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
28%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)
63%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Carapeguá at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.65 + Club River Plate defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Club River Plate attack 1.04 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Carapeguá scores more
47%
level
26%
Club River Plate scores more
27%

Sportivo Carapeguá at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Carapeguá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
G. A. Villamayor Achucarro
40'
A. Montiel
56'
U. Gonzalez
59'
M. Ojeda
61'
F. V. Bareiro Munoz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Sportivo Carapeguá 3–1 Club River Plate

Sportivo Carapeguá beat Club River Plate 3-1 in Division Intermedia on September 21, 2025.

Goals: G. A. Villamayor Achucarro (32'), A. Montiel (40'), M. Ojeda (59'), F. V. Bareiro Munoz (61').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Carapeguá in Carapeguá.