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Sportivo Belgrano vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
3/24/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 10Estadio Oscar Carlos Boero (San Francisco, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sportivo Belgrano52%
×Draw26%
San Lorenzo Alem22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Belgrano
1.49
San Lorenzo Alem
0.86

Sportivo Belgrano creates 73% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sportivo Belgrano
1.31
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Belgrano
0.72
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Belgrano ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Belgrano or draw
78%
Sportivo Belgrano or San Lorenzo Alem
74%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
48%

Winning margin

Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+
26%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals
77%
Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals
44%
Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals
19%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
58%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
21%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)
71%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Belgrano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.72 · 109 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Belgrano attack 1.31 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sportivo Belgrano scores more
52%
level
26%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
22%

Sportivo Belgrano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sportivo Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Belgrano 2 – 2 San Lorenzo Alem

Sportivo Belgrano and San Lorenzo Alem drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Oscar Carlos Boero (San Francisco, Provincia de Córdoba).