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Sportivo Belgrano vs Estudiantes S.l. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes S.l.
Estudiantes S.l.
10/28/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 10Estadio Oscar Carlos Boero (San Francisco, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sportivo Belgrano51%
×Draw29%
Estudiantes S.l.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Belgrano
1.31
Estudiantes S.l.
0.72

Sportivo Belgrano creates 82% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sportivo Belgrano
1.31
Estudiantes S.l.
0.72

allows per match

Sportivo Belgrano
0.72
Estudiantes S.l.
1.30

finishing

Sportivo Belgrano+0.00on par
Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Belgrano ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Belgrano or draw
79%
Sportivo Belgrano or Estudiantes S.l.
71%
Draw or Estudiantes S.l.
49%

Winning margin

Sportivo Belgrano wins by 2+
24%
Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sportivo Belgrano 1+ goals
73%
Sportivo Belgrano 2+ goals
38%
Sportivo Belgrano 3+ goals
14%
Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals
51%
Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals
16%
Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Belgrano (draw refunded)
71%
Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Belgrano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.72 · 109 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Belgrano attack 1.31 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Sportivo Belgrano defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportivo Belgrano scores more
51%
level
29%
Estudiantes S.l. scores more
21%

Sportivo Belgrano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportivo Belgrano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Belgrano vs Estudiantes S.l.

Sportivo Belgrano beat Estudiantes S.l. 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Oscar Carlos Boero (San Francisco, Provincia de Córdoba).