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Sportivo Barracas vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingóadvanced
11/3/2025Primera CPrimera C · FinalEstadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportivo Barracas34%
×Draw31%
Ituzaingó35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.00
Ituzaingó
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
Ituzaingó
0.94

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
65%
Sportivo Barracas or Ituzaingó
69%
Draw or Ituzaingó
66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
13%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
63%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
8%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
64%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
27%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
49%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.11 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
34%
level
31%
Ituzaingó scores more
35%

Ituzaingó at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sportivo Barracas 0–1 Ituzaingó

Ituzaingó beat Sportivo Barracas 1-0 in Primera C on November 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Tres de Febrero in Jose Ingenieros.