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Sportivo Barracas vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
FT
2 – 0
Berazategui
Berazategui
11/29/2018Primera CPrimera C · Round 15Estadio República de Italia (La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportivo Barracas35%
×Draw28%
Berazategui36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Barracas
1.16
Berazategui
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 143 away

creates per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

Sportivo Barracas
1.11
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Barracas ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Barracas or draw
64%
Sportivo Barracas or Berazategui
72%
Draw or Berazategui
65%

Winning margin

Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
15%
Berazategui wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
11%
Berazategui 1+ goals
69%
Berazategui 2+ goals
33%
Berazategui 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
49%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Barracas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Barracas attack 1.11 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Berazategui attack 1.24 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sportivo Barracas scores more
35%
level
28%
Berazategui scores more
36%

Berazategui at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Sportivo Barracas 2–0 Berazategui

Sportivo Barracas beat Berazategui 2-0 in Primera C on November 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio República de Italia (La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires).