Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Olimpia
Olimpia
1/30/2025Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 2Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano25%
×Draw25%
Olimpia50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.05
Olimpia
1.59

Olimpia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 97 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.13
Olimpia
1.76

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.42
Olimpia
0.97

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
50%
Sportivo Ameliano or Olimpia
75%
Draw or Olimpia
75%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
9%
Olimpia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
9%
Olimpia 1+ goals
80%
Olimpia 2+ goals
47%
Olimpia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
33%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Olimpia attack 1.76 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
25%
level
25%
Olimpia scores more
50%

Olimpia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia

Sportivo Ameliano and Olimpia drew 2-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on January 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio in Itauguá.