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Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Olimpia
Olimpia
3/8/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano42%
×Draw27%
Olimpia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.35
Olimpia
1.13

Sportivo Ameliano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.50
Olimpia
1.00

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.25
Olimpia
1.20

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Olimpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
69%
Sportivo Ameliano or Olimpia
73%
Draw or Olimpia
58%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
19%
Olimpia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
39%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
15%
Olimpia 1+ goals
68%
Olimpia 2+ goals
31%
Olimpia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
57%
Olimpia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.50 + Olimpia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Olimpia attack 1.00 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
42%
level
27%
Olimpia scores more
31%

Sportivo Ameliano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Sportivo Ameliano 2–0 Olimpia

Sportivo Ameliano beat Olimpia 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.