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Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
1/19/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano34%
×Draw27%
Nacional Asuncion38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.19
Nacional Asuncion
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.13
Nacional Asuncion
1.13

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.42
Nacional Asuncion
1.26

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Nacional Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
62%
Sportivo Ameliano or Nacional Asuncion
73%
Draw or Nacional Asuncion
66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
14%
Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
12%
Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
72%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
36%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
47%
Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.13 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
34%
level
27%
Nacional Asuncion scores more
38%

Nacional Asuncion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano beat Nacional Asuncion 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.