Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Sportivo Ameliano

Nacional Asuncion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sportivo Ameliano

5/4/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 17Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nacional Asuncion38%

×Draw29%

Sportivo Ameliano33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchSportivo Ameliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

Nacional Asuncion

1.17

Sportivo Ameliano

1.06

Nacional Asuncion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 55 away

1.22

creates per match

1.04

1.08

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.22

Sportivo Ameliano

1.04

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.08

Sportivo Ameliano

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

67%

Nacional Asuncion or Sportivo Ameliano

71%

Draw or Sportivo Ameliano

62%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

16%

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

69%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

33%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

54%

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

38%

level

29%

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

33%

Nacional Asuncion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff