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Sportivo Ameliano vs General Caballero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
General Caballero
General Caballero
6/3/2023Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 21Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano37%
×Draw28%
General Caballero35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.21
General Caballero
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.13
General Caballero
0.89

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.42
General Caballero
1.30

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

General Caballero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
65%
Sportivo Ameliano or General Caballero
72%
Draw or General Caballero
63%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
16%
General Caballero wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
34%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
12%
General Caballero 1+ goals
69%
General Caballero 2+ goals
32%
General Caballero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
52%
General Caballero (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.13 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

General Caballero attack 0.89 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
37%
level
28%
General Caballero scores more
35%

Sportivo Ameliano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs General Caballero

General Caballero beat Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres in Asunción.