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Sportivo Ameliano vs Atlético Tembetary — League #252 2026

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
E. Vera 30'
7/7/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 1Estadio Ameliano Villeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano61%
×Draw22%
Atlético Tembetary17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.88
Atlético Tembetary
0.88

Sportivo Ameliano creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.25
Atlético Tembetary
0.50

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.25
Atlético Tembetary
2.50

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Atlético Tembetary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
83%
Sportivo Ameliano or Atlético Tembetary
78%
Draw or Atlético Tembetary
39%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
85%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
56%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atlético Tembetary away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.25 + Atlético Tembetary defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlético Tembetary attack 0.50 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
61%
level
22%
Atlético Tembetary scores more
17%

Sportivo Ameliano at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. VeraSportivo AmelianoSportivo Ameliano · M
8.3

Match Events

12'
Pablo Aranda
22'
Nicolás Marotta
23'
Alan Gomez
30'
E. Vera
34'
Lucas Guiñazú
34'
Lucas GuiñazúCard upgrade
46'
M. Leon← P. Aranda
60'
Estiven Pérez
62'
F. Vera← D. Barreto
62'
L. Falabella← F. Baez
69'
M. Paredes← E. Moreira
69'
N. Morinigo← E. Perez
69'
J. F. Esteche← G. Gudino
69'
C. Favero← A. Gomez
77'
Julio Gonzalez
80'
R. A. Gamarra Escobar← C. Mercado
82'
A. Paez← A. Samudio
89'
Elias Sarquis
89'
A. Cristaldo← R. Rojas

Possession

58%Sportivo

Shots

20Sportivo

Pass accuracy

53%Sportivo

Statistics

SportivoAtlético
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots5
1.89Expected Goals (xG)1.13
6Corners6
14Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots5
6On Target2
8Off Target3
6Blocked0
9Inside Box4
11Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
363Total Passes264
272Accurate Passes177
75%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

League #252: Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Atlético Tembetary

Sportivo Ameliano beat Atlético Tembetary 1-0 in League #252 on July 7, 2025.

Goals: E. Vera (30').

Sportivo Ameliano controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Ameliano Villeta in Naranjaisy.