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Sportivo Ameliano vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
PST
22:00
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
8/1/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio José Tomás Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano47%
×Draw25%
3 de Febrero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Ameliano
1.54
3 de Febrero
1.10

Sportivo Ameliano creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.76
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano
1.18
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw
73%
Sportivo Ameliano or 3 de Febrero
75%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
24%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
79%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
45%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
20%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
67%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
30%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
64%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.76 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more
47%
level
25%
3 de Febrero scores more
27%

Sportivo Ameliano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Ameliano vs 3 de Febrero — Match Preview

Sportivo Ameliano face 3 de Febrero on August 1, 2020 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sportivo Ameliano host 3 de Febrero at Estadio José Tomás Silva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.