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3 de Febrero vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
0 – 0
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
7/25/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

3 de Febrero33%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Ameliano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.14
Sportivo Ameliano
1.25

Sportivo Ameliano creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Sportivo Ameliano
1.24

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
61%
3 de Febrero or Sportivo Ameliano
72%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
67%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
68%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
32%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
36%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
46%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.24 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
33%
level
28%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
39%

Sportivo Ameliano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 3 de Febrero 0–0 Sportivo Ameliano

3 de Febrero and Sportivo Ameliano drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda in Ciudad del Este.