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Sportist Svoge vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
Preview
16:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
3/6/2027Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov
Big match
40%
Sportist Svoge
model favours
40%29%31%

Yantra 2019 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sportist Svoge40%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.18
Yantra 2019
0.99

Sportist Svoge creates 19% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
69%
Sportist Svoge or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
60%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
17%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
69%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
33%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
12%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
63%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
26%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
57%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
40%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
31%

Sportist Svoge at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Yantra 2019’s matches
  • 70% of Yantra 2019’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Sportist Svoge sit 13, Yantra 2019 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Svoge
LLW
2019
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist Svoge face Yantra 2019 (Second League)

Second League returns with Sportist Svoge hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sportist Svoge host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.