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Sportist Svoge vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
4/17/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sportist Svoge45%
×Draw28%
Strumska Slava27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.30
Strumska Slava
0.93

Sportist Svoge creates 40% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 113 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
73%
Sportist Svoge or Strumska Slava
72%
Draw or Strumska Slava
55%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
21%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
73%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
37%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
14%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
61%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
24%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
63%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
45%
level
28%
Strumska Slava scores more
27%

Sportist Svoge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sportist Svoge 3–1 Strumska Slava

Sportist Svoge beat Strumska Slava 3-1 in Second League on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.