Sportist Svoge 0–2 Septemvri Sofia: Result & Stats

Sportist Svoge

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Septemvri Sofia

2/25/2024

Second League · Round 22Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportist Svoge30%

×Draw28%

Septemvri Sofia42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.31

Sportist Svoge

1.07

Septemvri Sofia

1.31

Septemvri Sofia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 60 away

1.15

creates per match

1.57

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Septemvri Sofia

1.57

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Septemvri Sofia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

58%

Sportist Svoge or Septemvri Sofia

72%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

70%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

12%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

66%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

29%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

9%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

73%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

38%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

42%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.57 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

30%

level

28%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

42%

Septemvri Sofia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff