Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportist Svoge vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
CANC
00:00
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
4/25/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sportist Svoge62%
×Draw21%
Perun Kresna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
2.04
Perun Kresna
0.95

Sportist Svoge creates 115% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.50
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.31
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
83%
Sportist Svoge or Perun Kresna
79%
Draw or Perun Kresna
38%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
38%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
87%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
60%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
33%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
61%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
25%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
79%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.50 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
62%
level
21%
Perun Kresna scores more
17%

Sportist Svoge at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist Svoge face Perun Kresna (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Sportist Svoge hosting Perun Kresna. Match starts April 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.