Sportist Svoge 2–1 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Sportist Svoge

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Lom

2/19/2022

Second League · Round 23Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sportist Svoge61%

×Draw24%

Levski Lom15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.68

Sportist Svoge

1.65

Levski Lom

0.68

Sportist Svoge creates 143% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

0.31

1.04

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Levski Lom

0.31

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Levski Lom

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

85%

Sportist Svoge or Levski Lom

76%

Draw or Levski Lom

39%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

34%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

81%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

49%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

23%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

49%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

15%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

80%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

61%

level

24%

Levski Lom scores more

15%

Sportist Svoge at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff