Sportist Svoge 0–0 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Sportist Svoge

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

4/11/2022

Second League · Round 31Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sportist Svoge55%

×Draw26%

Botev Plovdiv II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Sportist Svoge

1.54

Botev Plovdiv II

0.78

Sportist Svoge creates 97% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 54 away

1.15

creates per match

0.52

1.04

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Botev Plovdiv II

0.52

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Botev Plovdiv II

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

81%

Sportist Svoge or Botev Plovdiv II

74%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

45%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

29%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

79%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

45%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

20%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

54%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

18%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

74%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

55%

level

26%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

19%

Sportist Svoge at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff