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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
FT
5 – 1
Topoli
Topoli
9/26/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 7Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo41%
×Draw23%
Topoli37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.77
Topoli
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
63%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Topoli
77%
Draw or Topoli
59%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
21%
Topoli wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
83%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
53%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
26%
Topoli 1+ goals
81%
Topoli 2+ goals
50%
Topoli 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
53%
Topoli (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.77

Topoli attack 0.85 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
41%
level
23%
Topoli scores more
37%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist G.Toshevo 5 – 1 Topoli

Sportist G.Toshevo beat Topoli 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sportist in General Toshevo.