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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Kubrat — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
FT
3 – 1
Kubrat
Kubrat
10/24/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 11Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo56%
×Draw19%
Kubrat25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.50
Kubrat
1.62

Sportist G.Toshevo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Kubrat
0.74

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Kubrat
3.54

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Kubrat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
75%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Kubrat
81%
Draw or Kubrat
44%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
36%
Kubrat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
92%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
71%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
45%
Kubrat 1+ goals
80%
Kubrat 2+ goals
48%
Kubrat 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
70%
Kubrat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
56%
level
19%
Kubrat scores more
25%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist G.Toshevo 3 – 1 Kubrat

Sportist G.Toshevo beat Kubrat 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sportist in General Toshevo.