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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
CANC
14:00
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
9/2/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo25%
×Draw21%
Chernolomets 191954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.35
Chernolomets 1919
2.06

Chernolomets 1919 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
46%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Chernolomets 1919
79%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
75%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
11%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
74%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
39%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
15%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
87%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
61%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
32%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
25%
level
21%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
54%

Chernolomets 1919 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist G.Toshevo vs Chernolomets 1919 — Match Preview

Sportist G.Toshevo face Chernolomets 1919 on September 2, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sportist G.Toshevo host Chernolomets 1919 at Stadion Sportist.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.